remote
     synthesis

Cringely and the Future of Adobe

Posted on Jul 11, 2007

A friend sent me a link to another insightful article by Robert Cringely that I had missed about the future of Adobe and Flash. It represents a very interesting perspective not unlike ones I have seen before but with some differentiating insights into the how and why Flash's ubiquity can play a key role in Adobe's efforts to reinvent itself (as he puts it). The article is worth a read for sure, and I just wanted to jot down some thoughts and summarize a few points for my own (and hopefully your) benefit, in the end relating this back to our position as ColdFusion developers a bit.Cringley says that Flash and PDF have reached a point of "invisibility" that often is achieved by hardware but rarely by software. By invisibility, he means people have come to expect its presence to a point that they don't even think about whether it is there or not. As he notes, PDF and Flash are installed on more than a billion computers.

However, Cringely believes that the future for Flash, and Adobe, is devices. Flash, having done cross-platform right, could be the ultimate UI tool for computers as well as nearly every kind of device (He essentially writes off Sun's Java efforts in this area).

All of this could lead to Adobe's dominance in the software industry in a future dominated by experiences that exist off the desktop. He is of the opinion that AIR is all about having something on the desktop that these Flash-enabled devices can talk rather than battling for dominance on the desktop. This makes sense to me personally, as I wondered why companies are battling over a desktop that seems less and less critical - I see it as a place to launch my browser from primarily.

While I have occasionally expressed my doubts about initiatives like AIR, the strategy/storyline Cringely presents makes sense and explains Adobe's dramatic push behind Flash/Flex/AIR. Looking at Flash as the single solution for web, desktop and devices is a compelling strategy. I suppose that means it will continue to be good times to be a Flash/Flex/AIR developer - better even.

So what does this mean for ColdFusion developers now that ColdFusion is under the Adobe umbrella. Well, first of all, it means we better start learning Flex. I have talked about how I wish ColdFusion could be packaged and deployed with AIR applications, but I don't see that happening soon. Even if we grant that ColdFusion is the easiest way to make a Flex application's back-end, that still leaves us only a smaller sliver of the web/desktop/devices future (and, while I love CF, our sliver is pretty small as it is). Now, take into account that, as I have briefly mentioned before, that I have personally feel Flex can occassionally help to marginalize ColdFusion, and you are left with the undeniable realization that our future lies with (if not directly in) Flex.

Does this mean I am saying that ColdFusion is dying or that there is no future in ColdFusion? Absolutely not. I think our mission, as those who love ColdFusion, is to work to make ColdFusion more relevant to this future. The part we cannot directly control is the path Adobe takes ColdFusion. However, working on open-source projects that speed up Flex/ColdFusion development or make ColdFusion the easiest way to integrate third party API's is a way we can have a direct impact. The other way we can have influence is by learning Flex and AIR. Whether it is a Flex application with a ColdFusion back-end, or an AIR application that is an offline extension of a ColdFusion or Flex/ColdFusion web application, ColdFusion can become an integral part of this future. In the end though, it is my opinion, the responsibility lies largely on us developers to have our hands in both worlds to help make sure this happens.

Of course, I am talking to myself as well. I have only been getting my feet wet at the moment...perhaps it is time to dive in.

Comments

Well commented, but I believe Cold Fusion is a dying language and Adobe are just hyping it to get more revenue because of the money it outlayed for Macromedia as well as the CF community that have invested so much into it. Flex is going to be a dominant force in the next few years and Microsoft will be doing everything they can to include silverlight in their browser and others as Flash is currently.

Posted By Frank Warwick / Posted on 07/11/2007 at 11:41 PM

"I believe Cold Fusion is a dying language"

The 90's called - they want their broken record back.

Posted By James Holmes / Posted on 07/12/2007 at 3:48 AM

Hi Frank,

It is great that you are an AIR fan.

Here is cool link for you:
http://www.adobe.com/cfusion/search/index.cfm?loc=en_us&term=AIR
That is ColdFusion server running the search engine for Adobe.com for the term “AIR”.
&
http://store1.adobe.com/cfusion/store/html/index.cfm?event=displayStoreSelector
Adobe’s Worldwide Ecommerce Store

AIR which extends and enhances Flex, can use Java, .NET, ColdFusion, PHP, or RoR for the middle tier to back-end database. ColdFusion has home court advantage with it's integration with Flex. (One member of the Flex or AIR team can pick up the phone or simply have a meeting to brainstorm with the ColdFusion guys and for some that means walking down the hall or the next cube) The ColdFusion development team is extremely smart and knows that if their middle-tier has the best integration with Flex and adds value, then the rising ColdFusion tide raises all the Adobe ships in the harbor. This is specifically means Flex and then naturally AIR.

Regarding Silverlight, Flash Player 9 is out now and there is no way it will be winner take all. There are extremely impressive apps coming out everyday built with Flex and I also think competition is good. It keeps us humble and innovative. Macromedia and Allaire did some of its best work as the underdog and thrived under the conditions.

Check out:
http://www.riapedia.com
http://www.themidnightcoders.com
http://www.coenraets.org

Posted By Mike Kollen / Posted on 07/12/2007 at 5:27 AM